October 16, 2024
The season is going by so fast as we enter week #7. The smell of November is in the air as temps turn colder and the county tournaments and state playoffs heat up. Let’s jump right in…
Group & Sectional Ranking
As we move toward state playoffs, NJP has broken down each sectional and group grid by their NJP ranking and rating. Despite team records, power points, or other media state rankings, NJP breaks down the probability and chances of each team in every bracket. A quick tutorial on the NJP rating: A team rating will equate to the number of point they would score if they played the top ranked team in NJ. Thus if the top ranked team in NJ has a rating of 33, and their opponent has a rating of 25, there would be an eight point differential per set (i.e. 25-17 on average).
If there is a 6 point or more differential between the teams playing, our statistical analysis has proven a win rate by the higher rated team at 98%. As the point differential gets closer, there is less chance of the top team prevailing. A 4 point differential will yield a 93% win rate. 3 points will equate to a win 90% of the time. When you get down to 1 point differential, the teams are expected to go to three sets and the overall average will drop to approx. 80%. With less than a .50 differential, win rate will drop to 75%.
By using the MATH, you can basically predict with a high level of accuracy, which teams will advance in each sectional and which teams will most likely make it to the championship match. The only thing to keep in mind as a variable is the seeding will not always align with the NJP rating. So you could have the top 2 rated teams facing each other in a semi-final or quarter final.
There are five posts on the website from this week that show each sectional rankings broken out by group. We will continue to update the group and sectional rankings through the start of the tournament.
Just one more reminder to make sure you connect with us on Instagram at njpvolleyball. We are always checking in with players and ALL of our invites for feature articles are completed through Instagram.
Subscribe
Make sure you subscribe to NJP and you will be emailed every post on the website. Be the first to know whenever new additions appear including rankings, standings, player rater, and roundups. Just enter your email address and hit subscribe on the right side panel on a desktop or laptop. On a cell phone, scroll to near the bottom of the page to the subscribe section.
Big Matches through the weekend
Thursday: Princeton at Old Bridge, Cherry Hill East at Kingsway
Friday: Notre Dame at Donovan Catholic, Montville at Morrsitown, Kingsway at Southern, Paul VI at Ursuline (DE)
Saturday: Williamstown @ Princeton
Accolades and College Commitments
