Night 5 recap

The NJ State HS Girl’s state playoff grid is speeding by like never before. Five straight nights of packed schedules and multiple rounds of play. There has been 208 matches over the first five nights and more scheduled tomorrow on Saturday to get most semi-finals identified. Meaning by the end of the weekend, we should be down to just 45 games over the 6 groups. Only one number 1 seed has been eliminated at this point. For the most part, all the power teams remain in the brackets. And almost all groups could have candidates that can still be announced as NJP State Champion.

There are still many scenarios that can occur but the heavy favorite to attain the NJP state champion designation is in the Princeton Tigers hands. They have reached a few rating points above the rest in the last ranking prior to state playoffs. And have knocked off many of the top 20 teams and most top 10. They represent Group 3. Old Tappan remains undefeated and appear destined to run the table in Group 2. But they still have a lot of work to do in their sectional facing Pascack Valley next and the winner of Sparta v. Demarest.

Group 4 remains stacked with candidates. Williamstown, Old Bridge, Hunterdon Central, Kingsway, Southern, CHE, Morristown, Westfield and others. They are all powers but all fall short of Princeton in ratings and/or head to head.

Non-public also has many NJ elites including Paul VI, IHA, Vianney, Union Catholic, and the only team to beat Princeton this season, Notre Dame.

We don’t feel any Group 1 team can demonstrate a resume to be included in the top slot at the end of the season.

As we get closer to sectional championships, we can evaluate all of the potential scenarios based on the algorithm.

For now, lets take a look at just how effective the rating system and math has been thus far. Through 208 games thus far, the NJP Predictor algorithm has produced 189 winners. It has also picked 13 upsets so far where a lower seeded team has beaten a higher seeded team. Traditionally, the deeper we get into the playoff brackets, the poorer the performance of the math, as game competition gets tighter. However so far in semi-final matches, we have outperformed quarter final and first round with a 93% win rate. Overall, we have achieved a 91% win ratio. Considering the volatility of high school sports, we remain extremely proud of this accomplishment.

As many more teams drop off and have their seasons end, we hope you can stay tuned to cheer on your fellow teams in NJ through the end of the season and beyond. NJP will also be announcing its year end awards after the season conclusion.

Good luck to all players and coaches in sectional semi-finals, finals, and group play.

NJP PREDICTOR SUMMARY

NORTH 1 SECTIONAL

NORTH 2 SECTIONAL

CENTRAL SECTIONAL

SOUTH SECTIONAL

NON-PUBLIC SECTIONAL