October 11, 2022
We will updating the blog as the night progresses so check back for new content through 1AM…
We have been attempting to communicate and educate on proper score keeping techniques and definitions of each individual stat and how they are derived. We are continuing our quest to have a real standard that all teams use when calculating their stats for individual players. It is still very apparent that statistic definitions are interpreted differently by team. We need all statisticians/scorekeepers/coaches to be using the same method of calculating for data to be truly representative of achievements. We have some ideas on how to best address this but will leave that for another blog post. But one way to root out those who are entering in error is to apply statistical data analysis to some of the stats posted. We are in the process of developing what we call an “error” rate for each team for every game played. We feel this rate can provide additional insights for coaches to help them design their practices as well as give us some insights on which teams may be entering stats incorrectly. Here are some examples:
Team A defeats Team B in straight sets 25-15, 25-15. Team A has scored 50 points and Team B has scored 30 points. If you add up certain categories of statistics that pertain to scoring points, you can evaluate how many or what percentage of points came from the other teams errors. In this example Team A has recorded 22 kills, 4 blocks, and 3 aces. 24+4+3=31. Meaning 19 (50-31=19) were points that were scored by opposing team errors.
We feel analyzing this metric for each team will lead to an abundance of data that we can use to trend these error rates by each game played, giving the coaches an extra data point to measure their squads efficiency. It will also allow us to evaluate a base line for the league and see who is outperforming who in regards to the metric while trying to prove the assumption that the higher ranked teams have a lower error rate than lesser ranked teams. It can also clue us in on teams where the error rate of their opponents is so low it is statistically impossible and therefore an opportunity to educate on score keeping definitions. Thus if in any game, the amount of kills, blocks, and aces is more than the total points scored, we have a problem.
One of the big problems we see is that blocks are often miscalculated. The definition of a block is when a defensive player deflects and attacking players kill attempt back onto the attackers side of the net and scores a point. If there is no direct point that occurs from the action, it is not a block statistically.
We are still figuring the best way to statistically analyze the over-recording of digs. Serve receive is never considered a dig for statistics. And the dig must come from an opposing players attack. From viewing certain games and matching the scoring afterwards, its very apparent that digs are being over counted by many teams. More to come on this topic in future blogs but feel free to contact us with suggestions and ideas that may help us find solutions to accurate reporting. Here is a link to a past article on score keeping… https://njpowerranking.com/2022/08/29/vb-stats-made-simple-are-you-scoring-correctly/
Another item we wanted to address was our player rater and per/set analysis. We present a lot of different data and make certain assumptions that make our data flawed. Despite these flaws, and there are many, we feel the statistical presentation is within a 95% confidence level based on the amount and sample sizes of our presentations. We have been getting a lot of inquiries from players or parents asking us to adjust set counts played by any individual player. Our calculation is based on the number of sets the team has played on the schedule. It does not measure a missed set due to injury, other players getting a chance, illness, proms, events, testing, etc… But we apply it to all teams consistently and many players have missed games or sets during a season. We even had one parent try to convince us that their daughter was a middle and only played three rotations instead of 6 so please adjust accordingly. We do not have the data structure of resources to provide this level of detail when tracking 4,000 players in one season. If we did, we would try. But please keep this in mind when sending us these types of requests. We love to interact with our fan base but often feel like we are disappointing them when we can not accommodate their requests. We do the best with the limited resources we have and have been happy we have been able to keep going this season despite not having individual player interviews and many other features that were eliminated during our cutback last season.
We launched a new player rater by conference analysis today as it was suggested by one of our fans. Here is the link: https://njpowerranking.com/2022/10/11/player-rater-by-conference-as-of-10-10/
Last season, the amount of downloads from our season yearbook was astonishing. We were very happy that we could create a memory that would be a keepsake for many players and parents. in the production of our last yearbook, we included some ads for our supporters programs or businesses pro bono. Our site never asks for subscription fees and we are big believers that no one should have to pay for this type of information, especially news about our kids accomplishments. It’s a passion plan for us and we just love what we do and hopefully provide content that is interesting to the NJ volleyball community, especially at the high school level. Costs for running the site come out of our teams pockets not including the time intense nature of running the site. If any individuals or business would be interested in running ads in the yearbook to help deter our costs, please email us at email@example.com. It’s certainly an opportunity to reach a very dense population of volleyball families and enthusiasts. Or just a chance for parents or other family members to shout out their favorite player.
USA TODAY REGIONAL RANKING 10-6-22
Game recaps and thoughts:
Another NJ undefeated team bites the dust in their quest for a perfect season as Bergen Tech gets cut down by Paramus. It appeared that the Knights had this one put away early. They dominated the opening set 25-13 and despite being even in the second, it felt like it was just a matter of time before they pushed ahead to win set 2. But the Spartans had a different idea on how the night would play out and rose up to win the second set in extra time 30-28. They rode that momentum to an easy to an easy third set win 25-15. Bergen Tech is the 11th team to fall from the unbeaten ranks since October began. Only 7 remain. BT fell to 16-1 and Paramus improved to 10-5.
Saddle Brook showed some gumption today as they proceeded to defeat a solid Indian Hills squad today. After dropping the first set 25-18, they simply would not be denied and fought off the idea of dropping their 5th loss. They stormed back to win the second set 26-24 and then in a thrilling third set, fended off the favorite 29-27 to take the victory. Abby DePeri led the defense and was a rock star on the service line. Senior Madelyn Faber had 6 big blocks and added 8 kills at middle. Francesca Accetta also had 8 kills while Kyla Carter had 2 blocks and 5 kills. The Falcons earned their tenth win of the season.
Sterling and Cinnaminson faced off in a BCSL battle of two very evenly matched teams. Cinnaminson earned a win in the first set 25-21 and Sterling returned the favor in the second, winning by the exact same score. The third set went to extra time with Sterling getting the final point in a 30-28 win. A great 10 kills performance by Cinnaminson’s Sami Muraresku was not enough to push the Pirates over the top for the win. Cinnaminson fell to 12-7 and the Silver Knights are now 12-6 after the victory.
Mia Bonner and Natalie Graham provided the offensive and defensive charge as Emerson fended off Park Ridge in two sets. Mia and Natalie combined for 21 kills and 21 digs in the win. Nice to see the Cavos back on their winning track after dropping their first loss of the year in the Bergen County Tournament to River Dell this past weekend.
Nice story coming out of Randolph as the Rams, who started their season losing 5 straight, defeated Mendham to improve to 7-7 on the season. Moira Durkin was outstanding for Randolph posting 7 kills, 6 digs, a block and an ace. Isabella DeNegris also had an awesome performance putting up 6 kills, a block and 2 aces. Kiersten Tinio had 8 digs and Dora Katsanos had 14 assists for the Rams.
Montville remains a team to watch come state playoff time as they improved to 12-3 with a major win and decisive victory over Wayne Valley. The Mustangs were in control the entire way limiting the Indians to just 14 and 15 points. There is a great match tomorrow afternoon when the Mustangs match up against SEC power Verona.
Bogota limited Palisades Park to just 11 overall points today in the NJIC. The Bucs are a well oiled machine and certainly a top 10 team in NJ. Palisades is in a rebuild year and yet to win a set this season. The NJIC is unlike some of the other conferences were a major attempt is made to match talent level by division. The NJIC has 5 divisions with 6 or 7 teams in each. We would love to see them adapt a system that puts the strongest teams in one division and work their way down matching team strength in each division. This would guarantee much more competitive division match-ups and eliminate one sided affairs where both teams do not benefit from the experience. Our 2 cents…
How about those Montgomery Cougars? They are in the midst of a 9 game winning streak and appear to be a strong candidate for turnaround team of the year. The Coug’s were 3-16 last season in the very unfriendly Skyland conference that is always at a high talent level. Some younger players have emerged this season and the play of senior’s Georgia Wess (114 kills, 96 digs, 26 aces) and Nia Ipeker (262 digs) have been outstanding. Sophomores Izzie Swain (71 kills, 83 digs, 30 aces) and Neena Kumar (267 assists, 31 aces, 96 digs) have brought great stability to the setter and outside 2 positions and freshman Maya Flores has 87 digs on the season. Senior opposite Lynae Carlson has been super on the right side adding 64 kills and 9 blocks along with 22 aces. The middle has also been vastly improved with junior Adanna Obuba and senior Brynn Sillick combining for 45 blocks and close to 60 kills. We have to admit, when the team was 4-3, we felt they were maybe a top 100 candidate but as the season has progressed, they have beaten BR, Ridge, WWPS, and now Hillsborough tonight in a three set thriller. They are playing like a top 30 team now and are getting better and better the deeper we get in October. They still have some major matchups on the schedule which includes a visit to Princeton this week and matchups with North Hunterdon, Hunterdon Central and BR. We wish them luck.
Nice job by Sarah Masiuk of Monroe as she posted 5 kills and 2 blocks to lead the Falcons to a straight set win over South Brunswick. The combination of Victoria Nazarova, Leena Tran, and Malvina Sullivan combined for 23 kills in a nice turnaround win for Old Bridge over JP Stevens after dropping their first loss last night. Hailey O’Neill had 17 kills for Brick Township as they outlasted Toms River North tonight with the third set going 26-24. Kelly Tempalsky and Mandy Shirk each slammed 5 kills for Hunterdon central as the Red Devils ran past Phillipsburg in straight sets. Southern left no doubt with their straight set win over TRE today, limiting the Raiders to just 9 points in each set. Lenape improved to 9-4 today as they downed Rancocas Valley in Olympic conference action.
Fair Lawn is now 15-1 as they dump Belleville in straight sets. The Cutters have a 6 game win streak and we expect that to rise to 8 games in a row before they face River Dell in the Bergen County tournament this weekend. That match should be a beauty as the Hawks have yet to lose a set all season.
Here is the link to the updated NJP Ratings and Rankings as of 10-9… https://njpowerranking.com/2022/10/10/player-rater-update-10-10-22/
Here is the link to the NJP Player Rater updated 10-9-22… https://njpowerranking.com/2022/10/10/player-rater-update-10-10-22/
Here are the Top 50 players in each “per set” stat category as of 10/10… https://njpowerranking.com/2022/10/10/top-50s-per-set-player-stats/
Here is the latest power points ranking state-wide… https://njpowerranking.com/2022/10/09/overall-power-point-rankings-through-10-9/
Here is the updated analytical standings as of 10-9… https://njpowerranking.com/2022/10/10/analytical-standings-update-10-9/
Here is a look at NJP rankings by Overall Group… https://njpowerranking.com/2022/10/09/njp-overall-group-rankings-10-9/